19 Aralık 2024 Dergi makalesi Açık Erişim

Gülmez, Burak

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    <subfield code="a">&lt;p&gt;Stock price prediction remains a complex challenge in financial markets. This study introduces a novel Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model optimized by Sand Cat Swarm Optimization (SCSO) for stock price prediction. The research evaluates multiple algorithms including ANN, LSTM variants, Auto-ARIMA, Gradient Boosted Trees, DeepAR, N-BEATS, N-HITS, and the proposed LSTM-SCSO using DAX index data from 2018 to 2023. Model performance was assessed through Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and out-of-sample R2 metrics. Statistical significance was validated using Model Confidence Set analysis with 5000 bootstrap replications. Results demonstrate LSTM-SCSO&amp;#39;s superior performance across all evaluation metrics. The model achieved an annualized return of 66.25% compared to the DAX index&amp;#39;s 47.45%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.9091. The integration of technical indicators and macroeconomic variables enhanced the model&amp;#39;s predictive capabilities. These findings establish LSTM-SCSO as an effective tool for stock price prediction, offering practical value for investment decision-making.&lt;/p&gt;</subfield>
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    <subfield code="c">2024-12-19</subfield>
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