Tez Açık Erişim

PLANNING OF MARINE STRUCTURES WITH MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION-MAKING (MCDM) AND ESTIMATING DESIGN PARAMETERS WITH ADAPTIVE NETWORK-BASED FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM

2023    Büşra BİÇER AYMERGEN

The Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method (MCDM) is a systematic approach which is used to inform the preparation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plans (ICMP) with the utilization of scientific data. The MCDM matrix, the centerpiece of the approach, is developed in this thesis based on five main criteria: Terrestrial Interaction Area, Land-Sea Interface, Marine Interaction Area, Environmental Impact, and Ecological and Biological Diversity. These main criteria are linked to sub-criteria and weighted by using Monte Carlo Simulation to produce a comprehensive decision-making tool. The aim of the first part of the thesis is to propose a scientific method that includes model simulations, taking into account the contribution of experts in the planning of integrated coastal areas, and to determine the locations of coastal structures with the quantitative methodology developed in this thesis. Based on this, a case study was performed in Antalya Bay with the proposed MCDM methodology, and the usability of the method was observed. In the second stage of the thesis, the estimation of the significant wave height (Hs), a crucial parameter in coastal structure planning and design, was performed. The aim of the second part of the thesis is the comparison of the significant wave height (Hs), which is the most important parameter in the design of coastal structures, with the results obtained by buoy measurement and model studies, and determining the current, sediment transport and wave climate by models in the most accurate way in the Marine Interface Area criterion, which is one of the most important criteria in ICZM planning. Artificial intelligence techniques were utilized in this study to estimate Hs by developing models with the use of different inputs and membership functions in combination with data obtained from a buoy station in the Antalya region. The validity of the ANFIS method was evaluated, and the models were compared based on statistical performance parameters. Consistent results were obtained for all models developed in this paper considering statistical performance parameters. The predicted results were compared with the real wave data, and it is concluded that high correlation values were obtained. Hence, the ANFIS models developed in this paper can be effectively used in estimating the missing wave data for Mediterranean coast of Turkey. As a result, the simulation based CZM MCDM matrix developed in this thesis, provides a comprehensive framework for incorporating models to Marine Spatial Planning decision-making applications. The Monte Carlo simulation based MCDM model has been integrated with Hydrotam 3D wave, current and sediment transport sub-models. As a result of the effect of the whole integrated models on the case study area, Antalya Cliff coast was quantitatively found not a priority area for investment in both scenarios, because it is a region with a steep rocky topography, not suitable for coastal structures, and where current and transport is high due to wave reflections.