Modelling the potential distribution of the Bridled Skink, Trachylepis vittata (Olivier, 1804), in the Middle East

The Bridled Skink, Trachylepis vittata, is widespread in the Middle East and eastern coastal Mediterranean areas and inhabits foothills throughout the arid regions of the Middle East. With the help of more than 146 distribution records from Iran, Turkey, Syria, Israel, Jordan, Cyprus, Egypt, Lebanon and Libya, we analysed the influence of climate on the distribution pattern. According to the Maximum Entropy model, the most influential factors that determined T. vittata distribution are: precipitation of coldest quarter, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and precipitation in the warmest quarter. The model suggests that the western slopes of the Zagros Mountains in Iran and slopes in the southern regions of Anatolia around the Mediterranean Sea are suitable for this species. The species is associated with areas with intermediate NDVI (150-180) (a measure of primary productivity), high winter precipitation (>300 mm) and dry summer (<50mm). The association with rainy winter limits the presence of the species in lowlands. The Zagros Mountains may act as a biogeographic barrier that limits the species dispersal eastward, because of their scarce precipitation.