Potential Threats from a Likely Nuclear Power Plant Accident: a Climatological Trajectory Analysis and Tracer Study

The legacy of Chernobyl is not the only nuclear accident likely to confront Turkish territory, which is not far from other insecure power plants, especially the Metsamor. The main purpose of this study was to examine the possible impacts to Turkish territory of a hypothetical accident at the Metsamor Nuclear Plant. The research was performed based on two different methodologies: First, a 10-day trajectory analysis was carried out a set of long-term (30 years) meteorological data; second, a tracer study was performed using the MM5T online model for the selected episode. Trajectory and tracer studies showed that an accident at the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant would influence all of Turkey. Furthermore, vulnerable regions in Turkey after the Chernobyl disaster were demonstrated as a new and first attempt in this study.