The use of aridity index to assess implications of climatic change for land cover in Turkey

This study was carried out to determine the impacts of climate change on aridity and land cover in Turkey. Data for future (2070s) climate change, according to present conditions (1990s), were estimated from the prediction results of a regional climate model (RCM). The RCM, which was developed in Japan, is based on the MRI model. The potential impacts of climate change were estimated according to the A2 scenario of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Aridity index, the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration, was computed by using measured data for the present condition and estimated data by the RCM for the future years. Changes in aridity were evaluated by comparing the current and future index values. Aridity variables were interpolated to determine the spatial distribution by means of geostatistical methods. Land cover was modelled and mapped by using the present and future aridity index data.