Effects of using hydrogen as an alternative fuel on Turkiye's glass industry economy

This study presents a techno-economic analysis of Capital and Annual Expenditure (CAPEX/AEX) for converting Turkiye's entire glass industry from natural gas to 100 % hydrogen usage. This is the first-ever comprehensive analysis in the literature, both for the glass industry and Turkiye. This study models the hydrogen demand based on the full production capacity of all 14 major glass factories within Turkiye's border, which is 20 % higher than operating capacity, ensuring robustness. The CAPEX analysis for supplying the requisite electricity for water electrolysis shows that establishing on-site solar farms (USD 5.19 billion) is 2.8 times cheaper than using wind farms while having lower required power output (7241 MW vs 9395 MW), demonstrating solar as the economically optimal renewable energy source. Comprehensive CAPEX and AEX models, including lifetime costs and storage, were developed for each hydrogen production method. While the total conversion to Green hydrogen requires a significant CAPEX of USD 13.13 billion, which is the highest among all production methods, the shift is definitely justified since it yields the lowest AEX of all methods with USD 210 million, dropping to a predicted USD 141 million by 2030, which translates into an annual saving of nearly 200 million USD for the industry compared to current fuel costs. Green Hydrogen is the only solution to prevent the inevitable similar to USD 60 million carbon tax starting in 2030. Furthermore, the AEX for Blue Hydrogen options is 72 % higher than that of Green Hydrogen, proving the need for a full renewable transition. Therefore, green hydrogen from solar farms is the financially optimal, zero-emission strategy for Turkiye's glass industry to achieve its Net Zero Emission (NZE) 2053 goal. But with current technological obstacles that impose furnace redesign, it may extend to 2045.