Distinctive Stochastic Tsunami Hazard and Environmental Risk Assessment of Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant by Monte Carlo Simulations

Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant will be the first nuclear reactor complex to produce electricity in Turkey in the near future. Due to the high level of cooling requirement, Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is located at the Mediterranean coastline in Mersin Province. A comprehensive seismic risk and succeeding tsunami hazard assessment of the Nuclear Power Plant must be inevitably conducted because of high seismic activity in the Hellenic Arch. In this study, Earthquake-Induced Tsunamis will be analysed using Monte Carlo simulations. 100,000 simulations will be conducted to generate a reliable analysis of the probable earthquakes in the Mediterranean Sea. A novel stochastic analysis of the historical earthquake data is implemented by using Gutenberg-Richter relation, convergence, box-whisker and clustering methods to reliably evaluate randomly generated earthquake source samples in the study area. Epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability assessment of the Earthquake-Induced Tsunamis are also conducted to generate a tsunami hazard curve for Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant. Depending on the probabilistic evaluation of tsunami hazard for the Nuclear Power Plant site, an environmental risk evaluation is also revealed in the scope of this study.