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Published January 1, 2022 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate

Creators

  • 1. Northeast Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Proc & Ecol Secur Changbai Mt, Sch Geog Sci, Minist Educ, Changchun, Peoples R China
  • 2. Univ Cantabria, Meteorol Grp, Dept Matemat Aplicada & Ciencias Comp, Santander, Spain
  • 3. Jeju Natl Univ, Geog Educ, Jeju Si, Jeju, South Korea
  • 4. Victoria Univ Wellington, Sch Geog Environm & Earth Sci, Wellington, New Zealand
  • 5. Tokyo Metropolitan Univ, Dept Geog, Hachioji, Tokyo, Japan
  • 6. King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Res Inst, Interdisciplinary Res Ctr Renewable Energy & Powe, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
  • 7. Univ Prince Edward Isl, Sch Climate Change & Adaptat, Charlottetown, PE, Canada
  • 8. Univ Buenos Aires, CONICET, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
  • 9. Indian Meteorol Dept, Natl Climate Ctr, Pune, Maharashtra, India
  • 10. Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, CMA, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • 11. Univ Abomey Calavi, Dept Geog & Planning, Lab Pierre PAGNEY Climat Eau Ecosyst Dev LACEEDE, Abomey Calavi, Benin
  • 12. Univ Missouri, Sch Nat Resource, Columbia, MO USA

Description

Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.

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