Fugacity-based analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pollution in Izmit Bay, Turkey: An analytical framework for assessment with limited data

An analytical framework was proposed for analyzing long-term chemical pollution in a coastal region with limited environmental data. The framework consists of compiling and synthesizing the available knowledge including the chemical's properties and the environmentally relevant data, as well as the data obtained by past monitoring studies. The gathered data is analyzed to assess multimedia fate of the pollutant by using fugacity-based intermedia transport calculations. Uncertainty analysis by applying Monte Carlo simulations is an inte-grated part of the framework. Dispersion factor (k) values were adopted, enabling a unified and intuitive way to define lognormal uncertainty distributions. The proposed framework was applied to polycyclic aromatic hy-drocarbon (PAH) pollution in Izmit Bay, a coastal region in Turkey, impacted by industrialization and population growth. The analysis showed the importance of atmospheric pollution as a PAH source and indicated that Izmit Bay sediments may be at steady state for most PAHs.