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Simulation of maritime transit traffic in the Istanbul Channel

2006    Almaz, Alper O.; Or, Ilhan; Ozbas, Birnur

This study aims to develop a functional simulation model for the maritime transit traffic in the Istanbul Channel and to perform scenario analysis to investigate the effects of type and frequency of transit demand, as well as various natural factors, resources and decision / policy rules, on the system. In this regard, the Channel traffic rules and regulations, transit vessel profiles, pilotage and tugboat services, meteorological and geographical conditions are considered in the model to provide a platform to analyze the effectiveness of various policies and decisions related to the transit traffic in the Istanbul Channel. The statistics tracked and collected in the analysis are the number and types of vessels passed, transit times of vessels, vessel densities throughout the Channel, waiting times of vessels, pilot and tugboat utilizations. In the first phase of the study, scenario analyses have been designed to investigate the effects of the factors of vessel profiles, vessel arrival rates, vessel priorities, pilot and tugboat availabilities and visibility conditions. In the second phase, the analyses are extended by integrating probabilistic current and visibility submodels, comprehensive overtaking rules, parameterization of pursuit distances and other administrative controls (regarding vessels in transit in the Channel). A scenario analysis is being run to reveal the effects of these factors and preliminary results are reported.