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A Behavioural Test of Depression-Related Probability Bias

Booth, Robert W.; Gönül, Selen; Sözügür, B. Deniz; Khalid, Khadija


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{
  "DOI": "10.1080/02699931.2024.2425695", 
  "abstract": "<p>Individuals high in depressive symptom severity show probability bias: they believe negative&nbsp;events are relatively probable, and positive events relatively improbable, compared to those&nbsp;with less severe symptoms. However, this has only ever been demonstrated using self-report&nbsp;measures, in which participants explicitly estimate events&rsquo; probabilities: this leaves open the&nbsp;risk that &lsquo;probability bias&rsquo; is merely an artefact of response bias. We tested the veracity of&nbsp;probability bias using an indirect behavioural measure, based on a sentence-reading task.&nbsp;Study 1 tested 112 Turkish students; Study 2 tested 117 international users of online groups&nbsp;for people with depressive and anxiety disorders. As predicted, participants with higher&nbsp;depressive symptom scores responded relatively quickly to sentences stating negative events&nbsp;might occur, and relatively slowly to sentences stating positive events might occur, compared&nbsp;to those with lower scores. This effect was only marginal in Study 1, but reached significance&nbsp;in Study 2. However, contrary to predictions, this effect was not moderated by the probability&nbsp;level stated in the sentence. This makes our findings difficult to interpret, and we must&nbsp;present these studies as a failure to convincingly demonstrate depression-related probability&nbsp;bias. We hope this stimulates more work on the nature and veracity of probability bias.</p>", 
  "author": [
    {
      "family": "Booth", 
      "given": " Robert W."
    }, 
    {
      "family": "G\u00f6n\u00fcl", 
      "given": " Selen"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "S\u00f6z\u00fcg\u00fcr", 
      "given": " B. Deniz"
    }, 
    {
      "family": "Khalid", 
      "given": " Khadija"
    }
  ], 
  "id": "285907", 
  "issued": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2024, 
        11, 
        12
      ]
    ]
  }, 
  "title": "A Behavioural Test of Depression-Related Probability Bias", 
  "type": "article-journal"
}
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